New UK Gambling Caps Could Push 40% of Players Offshore, Asserts New Study

A newly proposed gambling bill in Ireland is set to introduce significant limitations on winnings and bets for roulette and card games. The legislation suggests capping winnings at €3,000 ($3,210) and restricting individual bets to a maximum of €10 ($10.70).

However, the gambling industry has raised substantial concerns about these proposed caps. Industry experts argue that such limitations could inadvertently push consumers towards unregulated and potentially dangerous black market operations.

Industry Concerns and Financial Impact

An analysis by Regulus, a UK-based gambling consultancy firm, indicates that these changes could impact between 30% to 40% of online gaming activities in Ireland. This shift might result in a significant revenue loss estimated between €80 million ($85.6 million) and €100 million ($107 million) annually.

• The potential impact on the black market is a major concern.

• Consumers may turn to unregulated operators offering higher jackpots and no betting limits.

• A significant portion of both revenue and engagement could move away from licensed platforms.

Additionally, there is a risk that more players might place riskier bets at longer odds, hoping to secure higher winnings than those permitted under the new legislation.

Expert Commentary from Regulus

Paul Leyland, co-founder of Regulus, has offered critical insights into the potential consequences of these regulations. He argues that while a €10 bet limit may be reasonable for slot machines, the €3,000 prize cap could be detrimental.

• High-value customers may find these restrictions prohibitive.

• Prominent racing owners and trainers could move to black market alternatives.

• Once consumers migrate to unregulated products, they rarely return to the legal market.

Leyland suggests implementing affordability checks similar to those in Germany, allowing individuals to apply for increased limits. This approach, he notes, would ensure fairness while still protecting players.

Government Response and Next Steps

From the government’s perspective, the Department of Justice has defended the proposed caps, stating they build upon measures introduced in 2019.

• The Gambling Regulatory Authority will have the power to revise limits when necessary.

• Officials emphasize that the reforms aim to modernize gambling oversight.

• Adjustments can be made to ensure the rules remain effective amid changing conditions.

Leyland, however, cautions that legislation is often difficult to amend, and future periods of high inflation might require further revisions to keep the limits fair and relevant.

In conclusion, Ireland’s proposed gambling reforms mark a major step toward stricter regulation. Yet, industry voices warn that excessive restrictions may drive players away from the regulated market — a challenge lawmakers must balance carefully as the bill moves forward.